Bet Next In Class

Bet Next In Class

3.)A drop in class. This year I have found that at Gulfstream track the horses that were winning the race all had something in common. They were being maneuvered and dropped in class. I shifted my betting strategy for the rest of the day to eliminate all horses that did not drop in class and came out with a couple monster tickets. BET+ is a premium subscription streaming service with over 1,000 hours of your favorite Black content from the best Black creators. Now you can stream Black culture: the movie favorites you remember, the TV shows you love and exclusive new originals streaming each month.
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Here are some initial tips to get you started with our E-Z Win® Form.
We will be publishing handicapping articles periodically on the site.
- Horstradamus®
Follow The TiersThis is the most important concept when reading my handicapping picks. The horses are grouped into color coded tiers. The tier colors are displayed as the background color of each horse's program number. The colors range from dark green to yellow.
The grey tier is a special tier which means I did not rate that particular horse. Although, the grey tier is listed at the bottom, this DOES NOT indicate that this is a bad horse. It is a rare occurrence that a horse is unrated. It is usually due to a lack of data for foreign horses. Examine these horses manually to see if they pose a threat.
Within a given tier, the horses are ranked from best to worst. However, usually the horses within a tier are close in ability and it is difficult to choose one over another. For single race bets (e.g. Exacta, Trifecta), I would key or box the horses in this first (dark green tier). For multi-leg bets (e.g. Pick 3, Pick 4), I take all the horses in the top tier. Sometimes, depending on the circumstances, I add one or two horses from the second tier or from the grey tier.
Handpick Your RacesAlthough I am successful at predicting many races, it is common sense that you must be selective when choosing the races to bet. You will not be as successful if you bet every possible race. Typically, I look for races with smaller top tiers (one or two horses in the tier). I also skip races if there are one or more horses in the grey tier.
It Takes Money to Win MoneyWhile you should handpick your races to conserve your bankroll, be prepared to commit enough money to make a proper bet when you find a race you like. Exotic wagers such as Pick 4s, Pick 6s and Superfectas usually require a significant outlay to have a realistic chance of hitting the bet. I cannot tell you how many times eliminating one or two horses from your combination to try to save a couple of bucks has cost a bettor hundreds or thousands of dollars in lost winnings. If you cannot afford to outlay enough funds for the more exotic bets, stick to simpler bets such as Win/Place/Show, Exactas/Quinellas and Doubles.
Workouts, Workouts, WorkoutsBesides my selections themselves, workouts are the second most important gauge of a horse's ability. Past performances indicate a horse's basic ability. Recent workouts are an indication of a horse's current form. When choosing between two horses with similar past ability, the horse in the best current form will often prevail.
We analyze the quality of workouts for you. Workouts highlighted in red are quality workouts. In addition, if you see the 'Monster Workout' icon for a horse, keep an eye out! Click here (or view the right sidebar) for the description of the icons on the prediction form.
Turf vs. DirtHorses are either main track horses or turf horses, not both. It is very rare that a horse will run well on both surfaces. Breeding plays a major factor here, as there are physical aspects of a horse which make the horse better on the turf or dirt. I will discuss this in further depth in a later article.
It is enough to know that if a horse looks terrible on the dirt (but has shown some promising short distance workouts), there's a good chance the horse will perform well on the turf. A horse that is predisposed for turf can look like a completely different horse when moving from the main track to the turf. The same goes for horses that are terrible on the turf. They may prefer a dirt course. For first time turf starters, I incorporate a pedigree analysis and rate these horses accordingly.
Another way to gauge if a horse will like the turf is to see if the horse ever ran on a wet dirt track (Good, Muddy, or Sloppy). If the horse ran significantly better on the off track than a Fast track, the horse may take well to the turf.
Track ConditionIt always amazed me that most handicappers never take track condition into consideration. This is a HUGE factor. Similar to the dirt vs. turf issue, some horses prefer a dry track while others prefer a wet track. This applies on the dirt as well as on the turf. In fact, this is often the case with European turf horses. The turf courses in Europe are frequently soft, and European horses usually don't run as well on a firm course here in the States.
A simple way to determine if a horse likes an off track, is to check his Wet record on my tip sheet or look at the horse's individual past performances on a wet track. Luckily, I do the analysis for you for all track conditions. In addition, I also analyze turf races for the dirt (just in case they come off the turf due to inclement weather).
Simply select the dirt and turf conditions on my predictions form to reflect the current conditions. It is important to change your selections during the racing day, if the track condition changes. If turf racing is moved to the main track, simply choose OFF as the turf condition. You will then see my dirt selections for all turf races for the dirt track condition you have selected. Sometimes racing may come off the turf but one big turf stakes race will remain on the grass. In this case, first you select the current turf condition. Then, go to each individual turf race and you can override the surface to Dirt for the races that came off. Simply leave the surface set to Turf for the turf races that remained on the grass.
Class DropdownsAnother thing to watch for are horses that are dropping in class. Horses that are significantly dropping in class from their last race, are usually a threat. Some examples of significant class drops are: Maiden Special Weight to cheap Maiden Claiming, Claiming to another Claiming with a significantly lower claiming price, Allowance to Claiming and Graded Stakes to Allowance or Claiming.
To determine if a horse is going up or down in class, simply look at the very right of the horse's section on my picks sheet. If you see a green down arrow, that means the horse is dropping in class. A red up arrow means moving up in class. The class comparison is based on the horse's last race on the SAME surface as the current race. Click here (or view the right sidebar) for the description of the icons on the prediction form. You can also see the class of the last race run by looking at 'Prev Race:' on my tip sheet. This is simply a quick indication of the track, class, and finish position of the horse in his last race (e.g. 3/7 means the horse finished third out of 7 horses). Of course, if you want to see the past performance in detail, view the past performance matrix.
LayoffsLayoffs are important in the following two ways:
If a horse hasn't raced for more than 45 days since his last race, the horse is currently laid off. Horses that are significantly laid off, tend to not perform to their normal standards because they need a race to get back on track (no pun intended). However, the importance of layoffs varies from track to track. At tracks with better horses (e.g. Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, Hollywood Park), even a short layoff can transform a horse from a contender to a loser. However at tracks with cheaper horses, horses can win their first race back from a long layoff.
If a horse's last race was coming off a layoff, the horse is bound to improve this time out. The past race was 'needed' and will usually not indicate the horse's true ability. In the past performance section if a race was coming back from a layoff, I highlight the date of the past performance in red.
Medication ChangeThere are essentially two kinds of medication given to racehorses, Lasix and Bute. Bute is only legal at certain tracks (typically on the West Coast).
Any horse that is using Lasix for the first time will almost always improve. I indicate this on my tip sheet with a special icon. Click here (or view the right sidebar) for the description of the icons on the prediction form.
On the other hand, Bute is very different. A horse either needs Bute to run well, or can't run at all with Bute. By looking at a horse's past performances, you can tell if they run better with or without Bute. The medication column on the past performance is indicated by a 'B' if the horse was using Bute. If a horse runs well with Bute and now is off Bute (I use an icon to indicate this), the horse will typically run down and run a terrible race. However, if a horse has always ran with Bute and didn't do well, the horse may run a big race the first time running without Bute.
Jockey/Trainer ChangeMany racing enthusiasts make the mistake of betting a particular jockey. It is true that jockeys may have significantly different winning percentages. However, these people do not realize that the most popular jockeys also get the best mounts. A jockey cannot make a horse run better than the horse's natural ability. Conversely, a jockey can ruin a horse's chance to win by giving the horse a bad ride. It is the case, however, that some jockeys 'know' how to ride a particular horse better. By looking at the horse's past performance matrix, you can see which jockeys typically rode the horse well. I personally put minimal weight on the rider of the horse.
Keep this in mind: If you give the best jockey the worst horse, he/she won't hit the board. However, if you give the worst jockey the best horse, chances are he/she will hit the board and possibly even win the race.
Nevertheless, when there is a change of jockey, I highlight it on my selections form. I show the past jockey's record at the track the horse last raced, and the current jockey's record at the current track. If the record has a star next to it, that means the data was not accurate and I had to estimate the jockey's record for that track.
Trainer changes can make a big difference, especially over the span of the horse's next few races. Simply, you can compare the records between the previous and current trainers. Again, if there is a change, I highlight it on my selections form. If the record has a star next to it, that means the data was not accurate and I had to estimate the trainer's record for that track.
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LEGEND TO ICONS
IconDescription
This is the horse's first start.
This is the horse's first start on the turf. Click here to see the section describing Turf vs. Dirt.
The horse had one or more 'Monster' workouts since his last race. Click here to see the section describing workouts.
The horse looked significantly better in his last outing compared to the horse's typical form. The horse could be in better form now or may have just had a fluke race. Typically, I rank horses by examining their form over their last several races. If the horse has improved, he could be better than his ranking shows.
The horse had an excuse on his last outing. Either something bad happened (left at the gate, bumped, etc.) or the horse was coming off a layoff and 'needed' that race. Click here to see the section describing layoffs. 'Bad' events are typically highlighted in red in the comments column of the past performance matrix. Since I rank horses over several past performances, their rank should be accurate. However, if you are looking at the past performance matrix of a horse and examine his last race, you should expect to see this horse perform better this time out.
The horse is coming off a layoff that was 180 days or more. There are also identical icons for 45, 90, and 120 day layoffs. Click here to see the section describing layoffs.
The horse's last race was recent and on a turf surface. Typically, main track horses become much tighter after a recent turf race.
The horse is a 3 year old in a claiming race with a claiming tag. Typically this is a bad sign since decent 3 year olds would be protected.
The horse is a 3 year old in an allowance race. 3 year olds are usually better than older horses in these races as they have reached the same race condition (e.g. Non-Winners of 2 Lifetime) in less time.
Blinkers have been put on for this race. Typically, this equipment change benefits horses that go right to the lead and tire. It helps them to settle in and save ground.
Blinkers have been taken off for this race.
Horses usually run much better with Lasix. Click here for a description of medication factors.
Lasix is being used on this horse but wasn't in his previous race. In addition, this isn't the first time the horse has had Lasix. In this case, check the past performance matrix to see how the horse has performed in the past with Lasix. Lasix is indicated with a 'L' in the medication column. Click here for a description of medication factors.
Lasix is no longer being used on the horse for this race. In this case, check the past performance matrix to see how the horse has performed in the past with Lasix. Lasix is indicated with a 'L' in the medication column. Click here for a description of medication factors.
Bute is being used on this horse but wasn't in his previous race. Horses that run well with Bute usually run poorly without it, and vice versa. In this case, check the past performance matrix to see how the horse has performed in the past with Bute. Bute is indicated with a 'B' in the medication column. Click here for a description of medication factors.
Bute is no longer being used on the horse for this race. Horses that run well with Bute usually run poorly without it, and vice versa. In this case, check the past performance matrix to see how the horse has performed in the past with Bute. Bute is indicated with a 'B' in the medication column. Click here for a description of medication factors.
This horse is dropping in class from his last race. Click here to see the section explaining class.
This horse is moving up in class from his last race. Click here to see the section explaining class.

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The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) gives horses an Official Rating (OR) as a means of helping us determine the quality of the horse. It is an essential component of handicapping because it enables official handicappers to decide how much weight a horse should carry in each race. Horses can only compete in a certain Class of race if they fall within the specific OR range.
According to the BHA, it has 11 handicappers who work tirelessly to ensure the sport remains competitive. It publishes a list of updated ORs every single week. The higher the rating, the better the horse.
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Each rating point equates to one pound of weight. So a horse rated at 115 should carry 7 pounds more than a horse with an OR of 108. The ratings are different in Flat & AW races and National Hunt events. Incidentally, the top Flat and AW horses are rated at 115+ while top NH horses tend to have an OR of 140+.
Official Ratings vs. Racing Post RatingsExperienced punters are often more faithful to the Racing Post Ratings (RPR) than they are to the OR. There is often quite a disparity between the two sets of ratings, and some betting experts believe you should consider selections that have an RPR of 10 points higher than their OR. However, you'll find that this happens with several selections a race!
For example, you might see a horse with an OR of 73, but it fails to run to expectations. A quick check on the Racing Post website reveals that the horse had an RPR of 68. In other words, the Racing Post team believed the horse was overrated and issued a lower rating than the horse's OR.
To give the Racing Post team credit, they are often correct which is why the publication is arguably the world's best horse racing authority. (This writer certainly does not consider himself anywhere near the equal of the Racing Post team).
I will probably write a separate post about RPR, but in this piece, it is all about the OR of horses.
Isn't The Top Rated Horse The Best in the Race?The simple answer is ‘no' for a variety of reasons. As good as the handicappers at the BHA are, the OR they assign to each horse is an estimate which means the horse could be underrated or overrated. Likewise, the RPR of each horse is not a rock solid indicator of a horse's ability in comparison to the rest of the field.
As I said, there are a number of reasons why OR and RPR can't be counted on 100%; not least the practice of trainers gaming the system. For example, a trainer could breed a 2-year old horse for middle distance races and enter it into sprints in the knowledge that it won't fare well. Sure enough, the horse lacks raw pace and fares badly. It receives a low OR of 53 by the end of the season.
As a 3-year old, the trainer enters the horse in middle distance races under its low OR. ‘Amazingly' it starts winning races off its artificially low mark. While this isn't a frequent phenomenon, it happens more often than you might think.

Let's see how Top Rated horses do in races since 2015 from the punter's perspective.
Clear proof, if any was needed, that the top rated horse in a race is not always worth backing. In fact, the highest rated horse wins little more than one-fifth of the time hence the awful ROI loss figures. Indeed, despite having a much lower win rate, backing the lowest rated horse in the rate would give you more or less the same ROI losses.
Things get a little better when you focus on top rated horses that are also clear favourites. They win over 41% of the time, but you still lose 3.82% on Betfair since 2015. Even backing odds-on favourites leave you with a loss of almost 3%.
If you focus on National Hunt favourites that won their last race, your loss comes down to 0.78%. Stick to Class 4, 5 and 6 races, and you get a profit of 4.93%. Finally, bet on Handicap races only and your ROI increases to a reasonable 14.72% with profit in each of the last 3 years. With almost 100 bets a year, you have a system worth your while.

Other StatisticsWhat about horses moving up or down in Class? Horses moving up could still be in the midst of a hot streak whereas horses moving down might be too good for lower grade company. Let's find out.

Top Rated & Moving Down in Class
Bet Next In Class 2020Horses in Flat races are by far the most interesting option. By adding in a drop in class, backing top rated horses goes from a loss of 6.75% to a loss of just 0.39%; even though the win ratio drops slightly. Horses that drop to Class 3 races (from Class 2) provide 42% profit since 2015, but alas, this figure is a mirage as it is boosted by a remarkable 2015.
Top Rated & Moving Up in Class
This strategy is a complete money pit! You will suffer double digit losses betting on all three codes for any horse taking a step up in class. Indeed, it is worth laying these horses as doing so in All-Weather races yields a profit of over 9% since 2015.
A Horse's Rating in Different ClassesBet Next In Class 9This is the final set of statistics I will look at and involves horses within specific OR ranges competing in races of a certain Class. Rather than going through the long list of data I researched, here are the highlights:
Horses with OR 45-50 in Flat, Class 6 Handicap Races = 6.3% ROI
Horses with OR 55-60 in AW, Class 5 Handicap Races = 14.81% ROI including an excellent 2017 so far.
Horses with OR 76-80 in Flat Class 3 races = 10.59% ROI including a good 2017 so far.
Horses with OR 70-80 in National Hunt Class 5 races = 11.91% (Very consistent over the last 3 years).
Bet Next In Class 2Final WordsThere is no ‘magic' OR where a horse suddenly becomes a sure thing. The BHA handicappers do a superb job of ensuring that handicap races are tough to call and the bookies tighten their belts when it comes to non-handicap events. There are of course a few profit systems, but I must warn you, the win rate is quite low, so value is the order of the day.

One final point: Look for horses that are clearly outclassed in OR terms. For example, a horse with an OR of 50-55 competing in a Class 5 event. More often than not, you can make a profit from laying the horse. While there is an upper OR in each Class, trainers are welcome to send horses with a low OR into a race with better-rated rivals.

Let's see how Top Rated horses do in races since 2015 from the punter's perspective.
Clear proof, if any was needed, that the top rated horse in a race is not always worth backing. In fact, the highest rated horse wins little more than one-fifth of the time hence the awful ROI loss figures. Indeed, despite having a much lower win rate, backing the lowest rated horse in the rate would give you more or less the same ROI losses.
Things get a little better when you focus on top rated horses that are also clear favourites. They win over 41% of the time, but you still lose 3.82% on Betfair since 2015. Even backing odds-on favourites leave you with a loss of almost 3%.
If you focus on National Hunt favourites that won their last race, your loss comes down to 0.78%. Stick to Class 4, 5 and 6 races, and you get a profit of 4.93%. Finally, bet on Handicap races only and your ROI increases to a reasonable 14.72% with profit in each of the last 3 years. With almost 100 bets a year, you have a system worth your while.
Other StatisticsWhat about horses moving up or down in Class? Horses moving up could still be in the midst of a hot streak whereas horses moving down might be too good for lower grade company. Let's find out.
Top Rated & Moving Down in Class
Bet Next In Class 2020Horses in Flat races are by far the most interesting option. By adding in a drop in class, backing top rated horses goes from a loss of 6.75% to a loss of just 0.39%; even though the win ratio drops slightly. Horses that drop to Class 3 races (from Class 2) provide 42% profit since 2015, but alas, this figure is a mirage as it is boosted by a remarkable 2015.
Top Rated & Moving Up in Class
This strategy is a complete money pit! You will suffer double digit losses betting on all three codes for any horse taking a step up in class. Indeed, it is worth laying these horses as doing so in All-Weather races yields a profit of over 9% since 2015.
A Horse's Rating in Different ClassesBet Next In Class 9This is the final set of statistics I will look at and involves horses within specific OR ranges competing in races of a certain Class. Rather than going through the long list of data I researched, here are the highlights:
Horses with OR 45-50 in Flat, Class 6 Handicap Races = 6.3% ROI
Horses with OR 55-60 in AW, Class 5 Handicap Races = 14.81% ROI including an excellent 2017 so far.
Horses with OR 76-80 in Flat Class 3 races = 10.59% ROI including a good 2017 so far.
Horses with OR 70-80 in National Hunt Class 5 races = 11.91% (Very consistent over the last 3 years).
Bet Next In Class 2Final WordsThere is no ‘magic' OR where a horse suddenly becomes a sure thing. The BHA handicappers do a superb job of ensuring that handicap races are tough to call and the bookies tighten their belts when it comes to non-handicap events. There are of course a few profit systems, but I must warn you, the win rate is quite low, so value is the order of the day.
One final point: Look for horses that are clearly outclassed in OR terms. For example, a horse with an OR of 50-55 competing in a Class 5 event. More often than not, you can make a profit from laying the horse. While there is an upper OR in each Class, trainers are welcome to send horses with a low OR into a race with better-rated rivals.
Even in handicap races, these horses are usually badly off the pace. For instance, since 2015, there have been 192 entries with an OR of between 50 and 62 in Class 4 races in Flat and AW codes; only 3.57% have won.